2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Top 30 Second Basemen
2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Top 30 Second Basemen
Second base looks like the most shallow position in fantasy baseball this season. There are some volatile options ranked near the top, but also some undervalued breakout candidates within the middle tiers. Second base is a position where I like to target speed, but there are also some players with 30+ HR pop. These rankings will put an emphasis on the following:
- Triple slash: AVG/OBP/SLG
- BB%
- K%
- wRC+
- wOBA
- Exit Velocity
- FB%
- GB%
- HR/FB
- ISO
- Ballpark Factors
- Lineup & Lineup Slot
Second base looks like the most shallow position in fantasy baseball this season. There are some volatile options ranked near the top, but also some undervalued breakout candidates within the middle tiers. Second base is a position where I like to target speed, but there are also some players with 30+ HR pop. These rankings will put an emphasis on the following:
- Triple slash: AVG/OBP/SLG
- BB%
- K%
- wRC+
- wOBA
- Exit Velocity
- FB%
- GB%
- HR/FB
- ISO
- Ballpark Factors
- Lineup & Lineup Slot
- Motivation for Bounce back
- Top Prospect Pedigree
DISCLAIMER: One of the issues I have with some fantasy writers is that they tend to rank players in a similar range in order to take the safer option, particularly players in the upper-to-elite tiers. My rankings are different because some players are ranked much higher than their ADPs. I base them entirely on my own criteria of statistics as well as my personal intuition, which has led me to several years of success in fantasy sports. Here you will find players grouped into tiers along with tidbits of useful information. Keep in mind that these rankings are for OBP leagues. Hopefully they stimulate discussion and debate. I hope you enjoy them.
Tier 1 - The Clear-Cut Top Dogs
1. Jose Ramirez
2. Jose Altuve
Ramirez was a monster in 2018, combining elite plate discipline (15.2 BB%), with strong power (.282 ISO) and speed (34 SBs). However, his 2nd half was concerning - he slashed .218/.366/.427 after the All-Star Break. At the same time, he is still the top option here - we just need to temper expectations, since 2018 might be his career year. While the power & speed may decline, he has room to improve his AVG - his BABIP was only .252 last season, suggesting room for growth. Altuve was disappointing by his standards last year, but part of that can be attributed to injury. Now healthy, he should be able to put together another elite season. He should be good for 90+ runs, 15-20 HRs and 25-30 SBs, as he hits in one of the best lineups in baseball.
Tier 2 - Stable vs. Flashy
3. Matt Carpenter
4. Javier Baez
Carpenter had a career year in 2018, where he hit 36 HRs and posted a .374 OBP. The Cardinals added Paul Goldschmidt, which should only benefit Carpenter's counting stats. Carpenter's OBP has never been below .360 throughout his career. This kind of consistency with plate discipline gives the veteran 2B a higher floor. Baez finally put it together last year, hitting 30+ HRs and stealing 20+ bases. But he's still a free-swinger (4.5 BB%), which lowers his floor in OBP leagues. His career high in OBP is .326. He definitely has higher upside than Carpenter, but that comes with increased risk.
Tier 3 - A Pair of Promising Youngins
5. Ozzie Albies
6. Gleyber Torres
Albies got off to a roaring start last year, slashing .320/.373/.680 with 8 HRs and 3 SBs in April. He faded as the season progressed, particularly in the 2nd half: .226/.282/.342 with 4 HRs and 5 SBs after the All-Star Break. But at 22 years old, a .261/.302/.452 season with 24 HRs and 14 SBs is very impressive. Albies hits in a strong lineup that just added former MVP Josh Donaldson. He also has untapped SB potential: he stole 21 bases in 97 games in Triple-A in 2017. I think we can expect his SB totals to rise in 2019. Torres has more power than Albies, as he smacked 24 homers in only 123 games a year ago. He also showed superior plate discipline, as evidenced by his .340 OBP. Torres can conceivably hit 30+ HRs with a full season in 2019. I prefer Albies due to his higher potential for SBs, but both of these players have significant upside.
Tier 4 - Overvalued mixed with Undervalued
7. Whit Merrifield
8. Scooter Gennett
9. Travis Shaw
10. Adalberto Mondesi
11. Daniel Murphy
Merrifield in 2018: elite speed (45 SBs) with a bit of pop (12 HRs) and improved plate discipline (4.6 BB% to 8.6 BB%). But I'm wary of him because he hits in one of the worst lineups in baseball and he's a late bloomer with a lack of prospect pedigree. I also don't like to take players whose value comes primarily from their speed. I'll let someone else draft Merrifield at his inflated cost. Gennett has posted consecutive seasons of .340+ OBP, 23+ HRs, and 92+ RBIs. He is hitting in a much-improved Reds lineup. His 125 wRC+ was 3rd best in baseball, better than Merrifield. A career year could be in the cards. Shaw has put up 30+ HRs in consecutive seasons. Last year, he raised his BB% from 9.9% to 13.3%. He hits in a strong Brewers' lineup and is a safe option and 2B. I am low on Mondesi for the same reasons as Merrifield. Mondesi also has terrible plate discipline (3.8 BB%), which significantly lowers his floor in OBP leagues. He also stole bases at a much higher rate in 2018 than he ever did in the minors (he never stole more than 24 bases there). It's quite possible that the crazy pace was due to the fact that it was near the end of the season and the Royals just let him run wild. Murphy had a down year due to injury; he started to show signs of recovery in the 2nd half, where he slashed .306/.356/.511. He now gets to enjoy the benefits of Coors Field. A bounce back looks likely.
Tier 5 - Breakouts, Boppers & Bounce-Backs
12. Rougned Odor
13. Max Muncy
14. Brian Dozier
15. Yoan Moncada
16. Mike Moustakas
Odor made significant gains in 2018, raising his BB% from 4.9% to 8.0% and HardContact% from 36.7% to 45.2%. He's also currently tearing up Spring Training. Still only 25, Odor has high upside for 2019. Muncy came out of nowhere to hit 35 HRs with a .319 ISO in only 137 games. His BB% of 16.4% is also highly encouraging. He is a bit lower on this list simply because his 2018 season was so unexpected; he can definitely join the Top 10. Dozier is a bounce-back candidate coming off of a down season due to injury. He gets to hit in a Nationals' lineup that is still strong without Harper. While he probably won't ever return to 2016 form, he is still a solid option. Moncada is a strong post-hype target. He has a much lower floor than those ranked above him, but this is a guy who once was the consensus number 1 prospect in baseball. His 10.3 BB% shows strong plate discipline; he just needs to strikeout less. He is also moving to his natural position of 3B, which should make him more comfortable and allow him to focus more on his offense. Moustakas gets a full season in Milwaukee, where he will hit in one of the best ballparks for lefties. He also has the benefit of being in a great lineup. Moose is lower on this list due to his weaker plate discipline: His OBP has not exceeded .315 in the last 3 seasons.
Tier 6 - The Best of the Rest
17. Robinson Cano
18. Jonathan Villar
19. Jurickson Profar
20. Cesar Hernandez
21. Dee Gordon
I am lower on Cano than most because I am skeptical of the change from AL to NL. He's also entering his age-37 season and coming off of knee surgery. I'll let someone else draft him this year. Villar could be a discount version of Mondesi, but that means he has similar faults: poor plate discipline & weak lineup. We have also seen him post great numbers only to follow it up with disappointment. He's another guy that I'm avoiding. Profar is a post-hype target who finally put together a good season last year. He now has a stable role in Oakland after years of fighting for a starting job and moving positions. He will be more comfortable; I think he will continue to improve in 2019. He's only lower on this list due to a worse track record than those ranked above. Hernandez has solid plate discipline (13.4 BB%) and hits in a lineup that just added Harper and Realmuto. Gordon is a guy to avoid given his poor plate discipline (1.5 BB%). I prefer to ignore players with zero power, so he is much lower on this list.
Tier 7 - High Upside, Low Floor
22. Garrett Hampson
23. Willy Adames
I am lower on Hampson than most because he has not secured the full-time job in Colorado yet. I have also seen the Rockies mismanage their young talent, as evidenced with Ryan McMahon last year, where they used one of their top prospects as a bench player. If Hampson can win the job over McMahon, he will move up this list. Adames hit 10 HR with 6 SB and a .348 OBP in only 85 games. Both of these two players are solid options if you decide to punt 2B.
Tier 8 - Injury-Risk & More Bounce-Backs
24. Jed Lowrie
25.Chris Taylor
26. Jonathan Schoop
27. Marwin Gonzalez
28. DJ LaMahieu
Lowrie had a solid year in 2018, slashing .267/.353/.448 with 23 HRs and 99 RBI. He's a big injury risk though and he's already banged up this Spring. 2018 also looks like his absolute ceiling, so the lack of flash makes him unappealing. Taylor is one year removed from a
.288/.354/.496 with 21 HRs and 17 SBs. While that's likely his ceiling, it still makes him an intriguing late-round option. Schoop is also one year removed from a good year, where he slashed .293/.338/.503 with 32 HRs and 105 RBIs. He's still only 27 and that power definitely plays at 2B, but the lack of plate discipline (.266 OBP last year) keeps him lower on this risk. Gonzalez posted .303/.377/.530 with 23 HRs and 90 RBIs in 2017. His multi-position eligibility makes him a solid bench hitter for your team. LeMahieu was consistent in Colorado, but his lack of HR + SB potential, as well as the crowded Yankee infield keeps him lower on this list. He's more valuable in AVG leagues.
Tier 9 - Multi-Flexible Utility Options
29. Niko Goodrum
30. Asdrubal Cabrera
Goodrum is eligible at every position in Yahoo leagues, making him a valuable bench hitter. He showed solid HR/SB upside with 16 HRs and 12 SBs, but with limited plate discipline: .315 OBP. He's hitting well this Spring, which is always a positive sign. Cabrera has some solid pop, hitting 23 HRs last year. He now moves to that bandbox in Texas. He's the kind of guy you leave on free agents and pick him up to ride the hot streak whenever it comes.
Honourable Mentions
Joey Wendle
Yuli Gurriel
Jeff McNeil
Luis Urias
This list includes a player who has power and is newly eligible at 2B, along with two guys with prospect pedigrees. Monitor them on free agents and pick them up if they're hot. Wendle is eligible at every position but 1B. He slashed .300/.354/.435 with 7 HRs and 16 SBs. He's another decent option to have on your bench. McNeil and Urias have more upside, Gurriel has the higher floor.
- Top Prospect Pedigree
DISCLAIMER: One of the issues I have with some fantasy writers is that they tend to rank players in a similar range in order to take the safer option, particularly players in the upper-to-elite tiers. My rankings are different because some players are ranked much higher than their ADPs. I base them entirely on my own criteria of statistics as well as my personal intuition, which has led me to several years of success in fantasy sports. Here you will find players grouped into tiers along with tidbits of useful information. Keep in mind that these rankings are for OBP leagues. Hopefully they stimulate discussion and debate. I hope you enjoy them.
Tier 1 - The Clear-Cut Top Dogs
1. Jose Ramirez
2. Jose Altuve
Ramirez was a monster in 2018, combining elite plate discipline (15.2 BB%), with strong power (.282 ISO) and speed (34 SBs). However, his 2nd half was concerning - he slashed .218/.366/.427 after the All-Star Break. At the same time, he is still the top option here - we just need to temper expectations, since 2018 might be his career year. While the power & speed may decline, he has room to improve his AVG - his BABIP was only .252 last season, suggesting room for growth. Altuve was disappointing by his standards last year, but part of that can be attributed to injury. Now healthy, he should be able to put together another elite season. He should be good for 90+ runs, 15-20 HRs and 25-30 SBs, as he hits in one of the best lineups in baseball.
Tier 2 - Stable vs. Flashy
3. Matt Carpenter
4. Javier Baez
Carpenter had a career year in 2018, where he hit 36 HRs and posted a .374 OBP. The Cardinals added Paul Goldschmidt, which should only benefit Carpenter's counting stats. Carpenter's OBP has never been below .360 throughout his career. This kind of consistency with plate discipline gives the veteran 2B a higher floor. Baez finally put it together last year, hitting 30+ HRs and stealing 20+ bases. But he's still a free-swinger (4.5 BB%), which lowers his floor in OBP leagues. His career high in OBP is .326. He definitely has higher upside than Carpenter, but that comes with increased risk.
Tier 3 - A Pair of Promising Youngins
5. Ozzie Albies
6. Gleyber Torres
Albies got off to a roaring start last year, slashing .320/.373/.680 with 8 HRs and 3 SBs in April. He faded as the season progressed, particularly in the 2nd half: .226/.282/.342 with 4 HRs and 5 SBs after the All-Star Break. But at 22 years old, a .261/.302/.452 season with 24 HRs and 14 SBs is very impressive. Albies hits in a strong lineup that just added former MVP Josh Donaldson. He also has untapped SB potential: he stole 21 bases in 97 games in Triple-A in 2017. I think we can expect his SB totals to rise in 2019. Torres has more power than Albies, as he smacked 24 homers in only 123 games a year ago. He also showed superior plate discipline, as evidenced by his .340 OBP. Torres can conceivably hit 30+ HRs with a full season in 2019. I prefer Albies due to his higher potential for SBs, but both of these players have significant upside.
Tier 4 - Overvalued mixed with Undervalued
7. Whit Merrifield
8. Scooter Gennett
9. Travis Shaw
10. Adalberto Mondesi
11. Daniel Murphy
Merrifield in 2018: elite speed (45 SBs) with a bit of pop (12 HRs) and improved plate discipline (4.6 BB% to 8.6 BB%). But I'm wary of him because he hits in one of the worst lineups in baseball and he's a late bloomer with a lack of prospect pedigree. I also don't like to take players whose value comes primarily from their speed. I'll let someone else draft Merrifield at his inflated cost. Gennett has posted consecutive seasons of .340+ OBP, 23+ HRs, and 92+ RBIs. He is hitting in a much-improved Reds lineup. His 125 wRC+ was 3rd best in baseball, better than Merrifield. A career year could be in the cards. Shaw has put up 30+ HRs in consecutive seasons. Last year, he raised his BB% from 9.9% to 13.3%. He hits in a strong Brewers' lineup and is a safe option and 2B. I am low on Mondesi for the same reasons as Merrifield. Mondesi also has terrible plate discipline (3.8 BB%), which significantly lowers his floor in OBP leagues. He also stole bases at a much higher rate in 2018 than he ever did in the minors (he never stole more than 24 bases there). It's quite possible that the crazy pace was due to the fact that it was near the end of the season and the Royals just let him run wild. Murphy had a down year due to injury; he started to show signs of recovery in the 2nd half, where he slashed .306/.356/.511. He now gets to enjoy the benefits of Coors Field. A bounce back looks likely.
Tier 5 - Breakouts, Boppers & Bounce-Backs
12. Rougned Odor
13. Max Muncy
14. Brian Dozier
15. Yoan Moncada
16. Mike Moustakas
Odor made significant gains in 2018, raising his BB% from 4.9% to 8.0% and HardContact% from 36.7% to 45.2%. He's also currently tearing up Spring Training. Still only 25, Odor has high upside for 2019. Muncy came out of nowhere to hit 35 HRs with a .319 ISO in only 137 games. His BB% of 16.4% is also highly encouraging. He is a bit lower on this list simply because his 2018 season was so unexpected; he can definitely join the Top 10. Dozier is a bounce-back candidate coming off of a down season due to injury. He gets to hit in a Nationals' lineup that is still strong without Harper. While he probably won't ever return to 2016 form, he is still a solid option. Moncada is a strong post-hype target. He has a much lower floor than those ranked above him, but this is a guy who once was the consensus number 1 prospect in baseball. His 10.3 BB% shows strong plate discipline; he just needs to strikeout less. He is also moving to his natural position of 3B, which should make him more comfortable and allow him to focus more on his offense. Moustakas gets a full season in Milwaukee, where he will hit in one of the best ballparks for lefties. He also has the benefit of being in a great lineup. Moose is lower on this list due to his weaker plate discipline: His OBP has not exceeded .315 in the last 3 seasons.
Tier 6 - The Best of the Rest
17. Robinson Cano
18. Jonathan Villar
19. Jurickson Profar
20. Cesar Hernandez
21. Dee Gordon
I am lower on Cano than most because I am skeptical of the change from AL to NL. He's also entering his age-37 season and coming off of knee surgery. I'll let someone else draft him this year. Villar could be a discount version of Mondesi, but that means he has similar faults: poor plate discipline & weak lineup. We have also seen him post great numbers only to follow it up with disappointment. He's another guy that I'm avoiding. Profar is a post-hype target who finally put together a good season last year. He now has a stable role in Oakland after years of fighting for a starting job and moving positions. He will be more comfortable; I think he will continue to improve in 2019. He's only lower on this list due to a worse track record than those ranked above. Hernandez has solid plate discipline (13.4 BB%) and hits in a lineup that just added Harper and Realmuto. Gordon is a guy to avoid given his poor plate discipline (1.5 BB%). I prefer to ignore players with zero power, so he is much lower on this list.
Tier 7 - High Upside, Low Floor
22. Garrett Hampson
23. Willy Adames
I am lower on Hampson than most because he has not secured the full-time job in Colorado yet. I have also seen the Rockies mismanage their young talent, as evidenced with Ryan McMahon last year, where they used one of their top prospects as a bench player. If Hampson can win the job over McMahon, he will move up this list. Adames hit 10 HR with 6 SB and a .348 OBP in only 85 games. Both of these two players are solid options if you decide to punt 2B.
Tier 8 - Injury-Risk & More Bounce-Backs
24. Jed Lowrie
25.Chris Taylor
26. Jonathan Schoop
27. Marwin Gonzalez
28. DJ LaMahieu
Lowrie had a solid year in 2018, slashing .267/.353/.448 with 23 HRs and 99 RBI. He's a big injury risk though and he's already banged up this Spring. 2018 also looks like his absolute ceiling, so the lack of flash makes him unappealing. Taylor is one year removed from a
.288/.354/.496 with 21 HRs and 17 SBs. While that's likely his ceiling, it still makes him an intriguing late-round option. Schoop is also one year removed from a good year, where he slashed .293/.338/.503 with 32 HRs and 105 RBIs. He's still only 27 and that power definitely plays at 2B, but the lack of plate discipline (.266 OBP last year) keeps him lower on this risk. Gonzalez posted .303/.377/.530 with 23 HRs and 90 RBIs in 2017. His multi-position eligibility makes him a solid bench hitter for your team. LeMahieu was consistent in Colorado, but his lack of HR + SB potential, as well as the crowded Yankee infield keeps him lower on this list. He's more valuable in AVG leagues.
Tier 9 - Multi-Flexible Utility Options
29. Niko Goodrum
30. Asdrubal Cabrera
Goodrum is eligible at every position in Yahoo leagues, making him a valuable bench hitter. He showed solid HR/SB upside with 16 HRs and 12 SBs, but with limited plate discipline: .315 OBP. He's hitting well this Spring, which is always a positive sign. Cabrera has some solid pop, hitting 23 HRs last year. He now moves to that bandbox in Texas. He's the kind of guy you leave on free agents and pick him up to ride the hot streak whenever it comes.
Honourable Mentions
Joey Wendle
Yuli Gurriel
Jeff McNeil
Luis Urias
This list includes a player who has power and is newly eligible at 2B, along with two guys with prospect pedigrees. Monitor them on free agents and pick them up if they're hot. Wendle is eligible at every position but 1B. He slashed .300/.354/.435 with 7 HRs and 16 SBs. He's another decent option to have on your bench. McNeil and Urias have more upside, Gurriel has the higher floor.
Comments
Post a Comment