2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Top 30 First Basemen
2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Top 30 First Basemen
First Baseman used to be the deepest position in Fantasy Baseball, but times have definitely changed. There is a much smaller tier of elite first baseman in 2019. However, there are some intriguing options that can be found in the later rounds. First base is also a position that you can fill with multiple players throughout the season, as often times we see a player get hot early on only to fade away (Hanley Ramirez and Jose Martinez are good examples of this in 2018). These rankings will put an emphasis on the following:
- Triple slash: AVG/OBP/SLG
- BB%
- K%
- wRC+
- wOBA
- Exit Velocity
- FB%
- GB%
- HR/FB
- ISO
- Ballpark Factors
- Lineup & Lineup Slot
First Baseman used to be the deepest position in Fantasy Baseball, but times have definitely changed. There is a much smaller tier of elite first baseman in 2019. However, there are some intriguing options that can be found in the later rounds. First base is also a position that you can fill with multiple players throughout the season, as often times we see a player get hot early on only to fade away (Hanley Ramirez and Jose Martinez are good examples of this in 2018). These rankings will put an emphasis on the following:
- Triple slash: AVG/OBP/SLG
- BB%
- K%
- wRC+
- wOBA
- Exit Velocity
- FB%
- GB%
- HR/FB
- ISO
- Ballpark Factors
- Lineup & Lineup Slot
- Motivation for Bounce back
- Top Prospect Pedigree
DISCLAIMER: One of the issues I have with some fantasy writers is that they tend to rank players in a similar range in order to take the safer option, particularly players in the upper-to-elite tiers. My rankings are different because some players are ranked much higher than their ADPs. I base them entirely on my own criteria of statistics as well as my personal intuition, which has led me to several years of success in fantasy sports. Here you will find players grouped into tiers along with tidbits of useful information. Keep in mind that these rankings are for OBP leagues. Hopefully they stimulate discussion and debate. I hope you enjoy them.
Tier 1 - Kings of OBP
1. Freddie Freeman
2. Joey Votto
3. Anthony Rizzo
Freeman is hitting in an improved lineup that will include former MVP Josh Donaldson as well as a full season of Ronald Acuna. Freeman is one year removed from a season in which he hit 28 HRs with a .280 ISO in only 117 games. His OBP has exceeded .370 every year since 2013. Entering his age-30 season, Freeman is poised for a career year hitting in the best lineup he's ever been in. Votto's power numbers took a steep decline in 2018, with his HRs falling from 36 to 12. He attributes this decline to a mechanical issue. Votto is a real student of the game and I am confident that he will correct this flaw. This year's Reds' lineup is much-improved. Votto's .430+ OBP upside is massive - if he can get back to 25 HRs, he will be an elite option in this format. Rizzo is also coming off of a down year, where he hit fewer than 30 HRs for the first time since 2013. This is a guy who has posted a .370+ OBP every year since 2013. The Cubs' lineup will likely experience positive regression, with so many of their hitters having down years likely to return to career norms. Rizzo should return to a .370/90/30/100 type of hitter.
Tier 2 - Flashy Young Studs
4. Rhys Hoskins
5. Cody Bellinger
No player got a bigger boost in value thanks to the signing of Bryce Harper than Hoskins. He has some of the highest power upside in the league and hitting next to Harper should do wonders for his counting stats. Hoskins should be able to eclipse 40 HRs for the first time of his career this year hitting in a much-improved Phillies' lineup. Bellinger is coming off of a down sophomore year where he slashed .260/.343/.470 with 25 HRs and 14 SBs - not bad for a sophomore slump. Like Hoskins, Bellinger has immense power upside. One encouraging sign was that he cut his K% from 26.6% to 23.9%. I expect young Bellinger to bounce back in a big way this year.
Tier 3 - A Pair of Cardinals
6. Paul Goldschmidt
7. Matt Carpenter
Goldschmidt needed a massive hot streak to post career norms. From June 1 until the end of the season, he .330/.420/.602 with a .428 wOBA and 170 wRC+. I think he is a great hitter, but the massive cold streak to start the year worries me, as does the shift from a hitter's park in Arizona to a pitcher's park in St. Louis. He should still put up solid numbers but I am going to avoid him at his current draft cost. Like Goldschmidt, Carpenter started off the season very slow, but finished with a .257/.374/.523 slash with a career-high 36 HRs. His counting stats should approach 2018's numbers with the addition of Goldschmidt. I think that he will have another very good season.
Tier 4 - One High Floor, One High Ceiling
8. Jose Abreu
9. Joey Gallo
Abreu has been a model of consistency since joining with the White Sox in 2014, putting up about .290/.350/.520 with 80/30/100 each year. He's hitting in an improved lineup that should see growth from guys like Yoan Moncada and will include top prospect Eloy Jimenez around May. Perhaps a career year is coming for the Cuban slugger. Gallo already has two 40 HR seasons under his belt and he just turned 25. He absolutely hammers the baseball, leading the league in Barrels/PA% with 11.4. His 12.8 BB% ranked 23rd in the league, suggesting room for growth in OBP. In an OBP league we don't need to worry about his putrid AVG - if he can get it to .340 then you have an absolute monster here. Gallo has massive upside for 2019.
Tier 5 - Speed & Sluggers
10. Whit Merrifield
11. Jesus Aguilar
12. Travis Shaw
13. Daniel Murphy
14. Max Muncy
15. Matt Olson
Merrifield would be better used at 2B or OF, but he still cracks the Top 10 here due to his massive speed upside, swiping a combined 79 bases in the last two seasons. He raised his BB% from 4.6% to 8.6%, which is a positive sign. I am lower on him than most people because that Royals' team is atrocious and their lineup is one of the worst in the league. I think that he is going to hurt you in the counting stats. Aguilar broke out last year, posting a .264 ISO as he thrived in a full-time role. He hits in a great lineup that now gets a full season out of Mike Moustakas. He should have no problem hitting 30+ HRs once again. His teammate, Shaw, increased his BB% from 9.9% to 13.3%. He has posted consecutive seasons of 30+ HRs and posted a .239 ISO last season. Murphy will look to bounce back after a down season. He now gets to hit at Coors Field which should definitely help his numbers. Murphy slashed .315/.346/.539 in the 2nd half as he started to return to health. A bounce-back should be in the cards for 2019. Muncy came out of no where to hit 35 HRs with a .319 ISO. He posted a highly impressive 16.4 BB%.. He is lower on this list because he hits in a pitcher's park. Olson trimmed his K% from 27.8% to 24.7% and posted a respectable 10.6 BB%. He is one year removed from a season where he hit 24 HRs in 59 games.
Tier 6 - Bounce-Back Candidates & Catcher
16. Eric Hosmer
17. Carlos Santana
18. JT Realmuto
19. Miguel Cabrera
Hosmer had a highly disappointing season in the first year of his lucrative long-term contract with the Padres. But San Diego just added Manny Machado and eventually will call up stud prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., so this lineup will be much-improved. Hosmer will be motivated to bounce back after a poor 2018. He is one year removed from a .318/.385/.498, 25 HR season. He is an intriguing later-round option as everyone backs off him due to recency bias. Santana is back in his old stomping grounds in Cleveland. He has always shown strong plate discipline, with a .350+ OBP every year of his career. He's a safe option that should have no trouble providing 25 HRs with solid OBP. Realmuto would be wasted at 1B and should be used as catcher, but we all know that he's a great hitter. His ISO increased from .173 to .208 in 2018. Now he leaves a pitchers’ park to go hit in a bandbox in Philly on a team that just added Bryce Harper. Realmuto is a good bet to at least repeat his 2018 due to park and lineup upgrades. Cabrera is a huge injury risk, but if he can stay healthy he will be able to produce. He posted a strong 14.0 BB% and should be able to provide .360+ OBP with 20+ HRs at a low cost.
Tier 7 - A Mix of Bounce-Backs, Breakouts, & Out-of-Position Players
20. Justin Smoak
21. Luke Voit
22. Ryan Zimmerman
23. Robinson Cano
24. Jurickson Profar
Smoak should bounce-back with the addition of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to the Blue Jays' lineup. He has strong plate discipline, having increased his BB% from 11.5% to 14.0%. Smoak can easily put up .350 OBP with 30 HRs. Voit exploded onto the scene in 2018, posting a .350 ISO and hitting 15 HRs in 47 games. I expect him to seize control of the 1B job over Greg Bird. Hitting in a stacked lineup, there's definite upside here. Zimmerman is one year removed from .303/.358/.573 season where he hit 36 HRs. He's entering a contract-year and can still be productive while healthy. I think that Cano will struggle as he adjusts to NL pitching after an entire career spent in the AL. The Mets moved the fences in, so at least we can see more HRs in that pitcher's park. Cano is also getting up there in age, entering his age-37 season, but he should be good for .330 OBP with 20+ HRs - obviously more valuable at 2B. Profar would also be better used at 2B, 3B, or SS. He finally has a stable role in Oakland entering Spring Training after several years of fighting for a starting job, switching positions and rotating between the minors and majors. He had a career year in 2018 and entering his age-26 season, the best is yet to come.
Tier 8 - A Bust & A Breakout
25. Edwin Encarnacion
26. Pete Alonso
Encarnacion goes to a pitcher's park and rebuilding team in Seattle. He has showed signs of decline in 2018; his K rate climbed from 19.9% to 22.8%, his BB% fell from 15.5% to 10.9%. Entering his age-36 season, he is a guy that I am avoided this year as you can tell by this very low ranking. Alonso is the best 1B prospect in baseball, but he does not currently have a starting role with the Mets. If he is able to grab the 1B role, he would skyrocket up this list. He posted a .326 ISO in the minors last year - massive power upside here.
Tier 9 - More Misfits & OBP Specialists
27. Ian Desmond
28. Brandon Belt
29. Buster Posey
30. Josh Bell
Desmond would be better served in your OF, although he does have rare speed for 1B. While he did increase his BB% from 6.4% to 8.6%, that walk rate still leaves a lot to be desired. However, with the Coors Factor and speed, Desmond tops this tier. Belt's value has been suppressed by the cavernous Oracle Park in San Francisco. His BB% fell from 14.6% to 10.7%, which is concerning - but he's always shown great plate discipline throughout his career. The lack of power (largely due to his ballpark) wipes the shine off Belt, though. Posey would be a solid option at catcher - if you use him at 1B, you're really diminishing his value. He had a down year in 2018, but he is only one year removed from a .320/.400/.462, 127wRC+, .366wOBA season. He has great plate discipline, which gives him a boost in OBP leagues. Don’t expect more than 15-17 HRs, though. Bell has subpar power for 1B, hitting only 12 HRs last year, but he's got great plate discipline; he increased his BB% from 10.6% to 13.2% in 2018.
Honourable Mentions
Ryan Braun
C.J. Cron
Jose Martinez
Jake Bauers
Justin Bour
Braun and Martinez have upside but don't have full-time roles. Cron, Bauers, and Bour also barely missed the cut. I suggest monitoring these players because they can definitely help you while they are on a hot streak.
- Top Prospect Pedigree
DISCLAIMER: One of the issues I have with some fantasy writers is that they tend to rank players in a similar range in order to take the safer option, particularly players in the upper-to-elite tiers. My rankings are different because some players are ranked much higher than their ADPs. I base them entirely on my own criteria of statistics as well as my personal intuition, which has led me to several years of success in fantasy sports. Here you will find players grouped into tiers along with tidbits of useful information. Keep in mind that these rankings are for OBP leagues. Hopefully they stimulate discussion and debate. I hope you enjoy them.
Tier 1 - Kings of OBP
1. Freddie Freeman
2. Joey Votto
3. Anthony Rizzo
Freeman is hitting in an improved lineup that will include former MVP Josh Donaldson as well as a full season of Ronald Acuna. Freeman is one year removed from a season in which he hit 28 HRs with a .280 ISO in only 117 games. His OBP has exceeded .370 every year since 2013. Entering his age-30 season, Freeman is poised for a career year hitting in the best lineup he's ever been in. Votto's power numbers took a steep decline in 2018, with his HRs falling from 36 to 12. He attributes this decline to a mechanical issue. Votto is a real student of the game and I am confident that he will correct this flaw. This year's Reds' lineup is much-improved. Votto's .430+ OBP upside is massive - if he can get back to 25 HRs, he will be an elite option in this format. Rizzo is also coming off of a down year, where he hit fewer than 30 HRs for the first time since 2013. This is a guy who has posted a .370+ OBP every year since 2013. The Cubs' lineup will likely experience positive regression, with so many of their hitters having down years likely to return to career norms. Rizzo should return to a .370/90/30/100 type of hitter.
Tier 2 - Flashy Young Studs
4. Rhys Hoskins
5. Cody Bellinger
No player got a bigger boost in value thanks to the signing of Bryce Harper than Hoskins. He has some of the highest power upside in the league and hitting next to Harper should do wonders for his counting stats. Hoskins should be able to eclipse 40 HRs for the first time of his career this year hitting in a much-improved Phillies' lineup. Bellinger is coming off of a down sophomore year where he slashed .260/.343/.470 with 25 HRs and 14 SBs - not bad for a sophomore slump. Like Hoskins, Bellinger has immense power upside. One encouraging sign was that he cut his K% from 26.6% to 23.9%. I expect young Bellinger to bounce back in a big way this year.
Tier 3 - A Pair of Cardinals
6. Paul Goldschmidt
7. Matt Carpenter
Goldschmidt needed a massive hot streak to post career norms. From June 1 until the end of the season, he .330/.420/.602 with a .428 wOBA and 170 wRC+. I think he is a great hitter, but the massive cold streak to start the year worries me, as does the shift from a hitter's park in Arizona to a pitcher's park in St. Louis. He should still put up solid numbers but I am going to avoid him at his current draft cost. Like Goldschmidt, Carpenter started off the season very slow, but finished with a .257/.374/.523 slash with a career-high 36 HRs. His counting stats should approach 2018's numbers with the addition of Goldschmidt. I think that he will have another very good season.
Tier 4 - One High Floor, One High Ceiling
8. Jose Abreu
9. Joey Gallo
Abreu has been a model of consistency since joining with the White Sox in 2014, putting up about .290/.350/.520 with 80/30/100 each year. He's hitting in an improved lineup that should see growth from guys like Yoan Moncada and will include top prospect Eloy Jimenez around May. Perhaps a career year is coming for the Cuban slugger. Gallo already has two 40 HR seasons under his belt and he just turned 25. He absolutely hammers the baseball, leading the league in Barrels/PA% with 11.4. His 12.8 BB% ranked 23rd in the league, suggesting room for growth in OBP. In an OBP league we don't need to worry about his putrid AVG - if he can get it to .340 then you have an absolute monster here. Gallo has massive upside for 2019.
Tier 5 - Speed & Sluggers
10. Whit Merrifield
11. Jesus Aguilar
12. Travis Shaw
13. Daniel Murphy
14. Max Muncy
15. Matt Olson
Merrifield would be better used at 2B or OF, but he still cracks the Top 10 here due to his massive speed upside, swiping a combined 79 bases in the last two seasons. He raised his BB% from 4.6% to 8.6%, which is a positive sign. I am lower on him than most people because that Royals' team is atrocious and their lineup is one of the worst in the league. I think that he is going to hurt you in the counting stats. Aguilar broke out last year, posting a .264 ISO as he thrived in a full-time role. He hits in a great lineup that now gets a full season out of Mike Moustakas. He should have no problem hitting 30+ HRs once again. His teammate, Shaw, increased his BB% from 9.9% to 13.3%. He has posted consecutive seasons of 30+ HRs and posted a .239 ISO last season. Murphy will look to bounce back after a down season. He now gets to hit at Coors Field which should definitely help his numbers. Murphy slashed .315/.346/.539 in the 2nd half as he started to return to health. A bounce-back should be in the cards for 2019. Muncy came out of no where to hit 35 HRs with a .319 ISO. He posted a highly impressive 16.4 BB%.. He is lower on this list because he hits in a pitcher's park. Olson trimmed his K% from 27.8% to 24.7% and posted a respectable 10.6 BB%. He is one year removed from a season where he hit 24 HRs in 59 games.
Tier 6 - Bounce-Back Candidates & Catcher
16. Eric Hosmer
17. Carlos Santana
18. JT Realmuto
19. Miguel Cabrera
Hosmer had a highly disappointing season in the first year of his lucrative long-term contract with the Padres. But San Diego just added Manny Machado and eventually will call up stud prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., so this lineup will be much-improved. Hosmer will be motivated to bounce back after a poor 2018. He is one year removed from a .318/.385/.498, 25 HR season. He is an intriguing later-round option as everyone backs off him due to recency bias. Santana is back in his old stomping grounds in Cleveland. He has always shown strong plate discipline, with a .350+ OBP every year of his career. He's a safe option that should have no trouble providing 25 HRs with solid OBP. Realmuto would be wasted at 1B and should be used as catcher, but we all know that he's a great hitter. His ISO increased from .173 to .208 in 2018. Now he leaves a pitchers’ park to go hit in a bandbox in Philly on a team that just added Bryce Harper. Realmuto is a good bet to at least repeat his 2018 due to park and lineup upgrades. Cabrera is a huge injury risk, but if he can stay healthy he will be able to produce. He posted a strong 14.0 BB% and should be able to provide .360+ OBP with 20+ HRs at a low cost.
Tier 7 - A Mix of Bounce-Backs, Breakouts, & Out-of-Position Players
20. Justin Smoak
21. Luke Voit
22. Ryan Zimmerman
23. Robinson Cano
24. Jurickson Profar
Smoak should bounce-back with the addition of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to the Blue Jays' lineup. He has strong plate discipline, having increased his BB% from 11.5% to 14.0%. Smoak can easily put up .350 OBP with 30 HRs. Voit exploded onto the scene in 2018, posting a .350 ISO and hitting 15 HRs in 47 games. I expect him to seize control of the 1B job over Greg Bird. Hitting in a stacked lineup, there's definite upside here. Zimmerman is one year removed from .303/.358/.573 season where he hit 36 HRs. He's entering a contract-year and can still be productive while healthy. I think that Cano will struggle as he adjusts to NL pitching after an entire career spent in the AL. The Mets moved the fences in, so at least we can see more HRs in that pitcher's park. Cano is also getting up there in age, entering his age-37 season, but he should be good for .330 OBP with 20+ HRs - obviously more valuable at 2B. Profar would also be better used at 2B, 3B, or SS. He finally has a stable role in Oakland entering Spring Training after several years of fighting for a starting job, switching positions and rotating between the minors and majors. He had a career year in 2018 and entering his age-26 season, the best is yet to come.
Tier 8 - A Bust & A Breakout
25. Edwin Encarnacion
26. Pete Alonso
Encarnacion goes to a pitcher's park and rebuilding team in Seattle. He has showed signs of decline in 2018; his K rate climbed from 19.9% to 22.8%, his BB% fell from 15.5% to 10.9%. Entering his age-36 season, he is a guy that I am avoided this year as you can tell by this very low ranking. Alonso is the best 1B prospect in baseball, but he does not currently have a starting role with the Mets. If he is able to grab the 1B role, he would skyrocket up this list. He posted a .326 ISO in the minors last year - massive power upside here.
Tier 9 - More Misfits & OBP Specialists
27. Ian Desmond
28. Brandon Belt
29. Buster Posey
30. Josh Bell
Desmond would be better served in your OF, although he does have rare speed for 1B. While he did increase his BB% from 6.4% to 8.6%, that walk rate still leaves a lot to be desired. However, with the Coors Factor and speed, Desmond tops this tier. Belt's value has been suppressed by the cavernous Oracle Park in San Francisco. His BB% fell from 14.6% to 10.7%, which is concerning - but he's always shown great plate discipline throughout his career. The lack of power (largely due to his ballpark) wipes the shine off Belt, though. Posey would be a solid option at catcher - if you use him at 1B, you're really diminishing his value. He had a down year in 2018, but he is only one year removed from a .320/.400/.462, 127wRC+, .366wOBA season. He has great plate discipline, which gives him a boost in OBP leagues. Don’t expect more than 15-17 HRs, though. Bell has subpar power for 1B, hitting only 12 HRs last year, but he's got great plate discipline; he increased his BB% from 10.6% to 13.2% in 2018.
Honourable Mentions
Ryan Braun
C.J. Cron
Jose Martinez
Jake Bauers
Justin Bour
Braun and Martinez have upside but don't have full-time roles. Cron, Bauers, and Bour also barely missed the cut. I suggest monitoring these players because they can definitely help you while they are on a hot streak.
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