2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top-75 Starting Pitchers
2019 Fantasy Baseball Rankings - Top 75 Starting Pitchers
Starting pitchers are the most volatile assets in baseball. It’s important to target pitchers with a high-floor because there’s always a risk of a season-ending injury at any point. We also must consider the intangibles: increased motivation when a highly-touted pitcher has a disappointing year, or if they move from a rebuilding to a contending team. These rankings put an emphasis on the following:
Career IP: Increased mileage can heighten injury risk
K%, SwStr%: Missing bats is key
BB%: Strong control increases floor
GB%: Better on the ground than in the air
ERA & FIP/SIERA Disparities
Pitch Values
Motivation for bounce back
Top Prospect pedigree
DISCLAIMER: One of the issues I have with some fantasy writers is that they tend to rank players in a similar range in order to take the safer option, particularly players in the upper-to-elite tiers. My rankings are different because some players are ranked much higher than their ADPs. I base them entirely on my own criteria of statistics as well as my personal intuition, which has led me to several years of success in fantasy sports. Here you will find players grouped into tiers along with tidbits of useful information. Hopefully these rankings stimulate discussion and debate. I hope you enjoy them.
Tier 1 - The Kings of the Mound
1. Jacob DeGrom
2. Max Scherzer
3. Chris Sale
These three pitchers can be ranked interchangeably. I put DeGrom at the top because he has less mileage than Scherzer and pitches in a weaker league than Sale.
Tier 2 - Challengers to the Throne
4. Trevor Bauer
5. Gerrit Cole
6. Noah Syndergaard
7. Aaron Nola
8. Blake Snell
A dominant season cut short by injury caused people to forget about Bauer a bit. He was the favourite for the AL Cy Young before going down. Cole dominated in his first season as an Astro; like Bauer, he combines great control with a high strikeout rate. Syndergaard is the wild card here but he has massive bounce back potential with some of the most dominant stuff in the league. Nola broke out last year, but he doesn’t have the strikeout potential as those listed above him. Snell won the Cy Young, but he falls below the rest on this list due to his 9.1 BB% as well as the fact that he pitches in the AL East.
Tier 3 - Veteran Aces with Risk
9. Justin Verlander
10. Corey Kluber
Verlander had one of the best seasons of his career in his first full year as an Astro, leading the league in K/BB% at 30.4, but his significant mileage (2,759.0 career innings in season) downgrades him on this list. Kluber is one of the most consistent pitchers in the league with pinpoint control and dominant off-speed stuff, but his fastball is weak; if any of his secondary pitches decline a bit, we could be looking at a down season.
Tier 4 - Budding Aces & Underrated Stars
11. Walker Buehler
12. Patrick Corbin
13. Carlos Carrasco
14. Jameson Taillon
15. Jose Berrios
Buehler was dominant in his rookie year, combining a high K rate with strong control. Take out a relief appearance where he allowed 5 ER in 1 IP and his numbers look even better: 2.30 ERA 0.92 WHIP. Corbin’s SwStr% was 15.6, 2nd in MLB behind his new teammate, Max Scherzer. His slider was one of the most dominant pitches in baseball and he now pitches for a better team. Carrasco is the most underrated ace in the league: last 5 years have produced a sub-3.60 ERA, sub-1.16 WHIP, and over a K per inning. His 15.3 SwStr% was only behind Scherzer and Corbin. Taillon’s development of a slider changed his game and led to a strong 2nd half. His SwStr% jumped from 8.2 to 10.7. A full year with this slider could mean big things. Entering his age-24 season, Berrios combines a top prospect pedigree with strong control and strikeout stuff. He just needs to find consistency and I believe it is coming this year.
Tier 5 - Underrated Veterans with Bounce-Back Potential
16. Madison Bumgarner
17. Stephen Strasburg
18. David Price
19. Masahiro Tanaka
20. Yu Darvish
Bumgarner is coming off of two seasons marred by fluke injuries caused by a dirt bike accident and a line drive. Everyone seems to have forgotten about him, so he will be highly motivated to return to form. Strasburg is an injury risk, but he is one year removed from a dominant season. He says his mechanics feel better at this stage compared to last year and he is in line for a bounce back. Price parlayed a dominant 2nd half into a dominant postseason. He finally exercised his playoff demons, which will be a huge positive psychological impact on him for 2019. He’ll be pitching loose after a World Series win - a strong bet to return to form. Tanaka had a 5.5 BB% and 25.0 K% - elite control and strikeout stuff. He will rack up the wins pitching for the Yankees. One of these years he’s going to turn in an ace season and I think this is the one. Darvish is feeling healthy with his velocity reportedly up this Spring. He is highly motivated to bounce-back after a highly disappointing first year as a Cub. Like Tanaka, Darvish’s strong control and strikeout stuff makes his upside high. He is ranked lower than Tanaka due to the fact that he is coming off of an injury.
Tier 6 - High-Upside SP2s & Second-Half Surgers
21. Jack Flaherty
22. Mike Clevinger
23. James Paxton
24. German Marquez
25. Zack Wheeler
27. Luis Castillo
28. Nick Pivetta
Flaherty looked dominant in his rookie season, but his 9.6 BB% is concerning, which puts him lower on this list. He looks fantastic this Spring. Clevinger trimmed his BB% from 12.0 to 8.3 in a dominant season, but his lack of prospect pedigree and concerns over control put him lower on the list. It’s possible he reverts back to his career norms with control. Paxton is absolutely dominant when healthy - maybe the Yankees can unlock more out of him. His significant injury risk keeps him lower on this list. Marquez 2nd half: 93.0 IP 124 Ks 2.61 ERA 1.00 WHIP - he pitched like an ace and you get him at a discounted price due to the Coors factor. Wheeler 2nd half: 75 IP 73 Ks 1.68 ERA 0.81 ERA. He is lower on this list due to health concerns but he is another discounted potential ace. Castillo 2nd half: 66.1 IP 69 Ks 2.44 ERA 0.96 WHIP. After disappointing last year, Castillo could breakout on an improving Reds’ team. Pivetta was a victim of terrible Phillies’ defense. They have improved in that regard with the simple move of moving Rhys Hoskins to 1B. Pivetta’s 3.51 SIERA was much lower than his 4.77 ERA.
Tier 7 - Strong SP3s
29. Chris Archer
30. Kyle Hendricks
31. Mike Mikolas
32. Zack Greinke
Archer should benefit by having a full year in the NL. His 7.7 BB%, 25.4 K%, and 13.1 SwStr% still show his tantalizing upside. His 3.73 SIERA and 3.75 FIP were lower than his 4.31 ERA. Hendricks is a groundball machine who has done it longer than Mikolas and has a higher K rate than him. Mikolas showcased elite control (3.6 BB%). He needs to improve on his K rate. Greinke is downgraded due to his significant mileage and diminishing velocity. The D-Backs are trending downward and Greinke is getting up there in age.
Tier 8 - The Breakout Tier
33. Ross Stripling
34. Tyler Glasnow
35. Joe Musgrove
36. Eduardo Rodriguez
37. Tyler Skaggs
Stripling combined a 4.4 BB%, 27.0 K% with an 11.2 SwStr% rate. With Kershaw’s injury concerns, he should have a cemented role in the Dodgers’ rotation. He’s a good bet to hold it all season long. Take out a start where he allowed 5 ER in less than 1 IP, and Glasnow’s numbers look interesting as a Ray: 55 IP 62 K 3.11 ERA 1.05 WHIP. He also cut down his BB% from 11.3 to 8.7 in Tampa - a breakout is on its way. Musgrove is a much cheaper version of Hendricks and Mikolas. He showed great control with a 4.7 BB% and strikeout stuff with a 20.6 K%. His 3.59 FIP was lower than his 4.06 ERA. Look out if he stays healthy. Rodriguez posted an elite 26.4 K%. He should rack up the wins pitching for the defending champs. He’s another guy who can post big numbers if he can put a full season together. Skaggs had a 2.62 ERA and 1.19 WHIP going into July 31st. His numbers plummeted from here onward due to injuries. He elevated his SwStr% from 8.0 to 11.0 in 2018. He’s another health risk that just needs to stay on the field for a breakout.
Tier 9 - Dependable Vets with Limited Upside
38. Jose Quintana
39. Charlie Morton
40. JA Happ
41. Rich Hill
42. Cole Hamels
Quintana is a bounce-back candidate after a disappointing first full season as a Cub. He started to turn his season around from August to October, with an increased in K rate and decrease in BB rate. Before last year, he was one of the more consistent pitchers in the league so I expect him to return to form. Morton is moving from the AL West to AL East so he gets a bit of a downgrade. His 9.2 BB% is concerning. He has a tendency of breaking down later on in the season. Happ isn’t a flashy pick, but he should be a solid innings eater. He increased his SwStr% from 9.4 to 10.4 last year. He should rack up the wins pitching for a great Yankees team. Hill is what he is: a veteran guy who won’t last the full season but will give you solid production while on the mound. Hamels’ stuff returned to form last year; his SwStr% increased to 12.1. He was dominant as a Cub: 76.1 IP 74 K 2.36 ERA 1.10 WHIP. His higher mileage keeps him lower on this list.
Luzardo is widely considered to be the top pitching prospect in baseball. He was dominant in Double-A last year, posing a 2.29 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 27.7 K%, and 5.8 BB%. He is currently dominating Spring Training. He likely will not start the season with the A’s which downgrades him on this list, but once he’s up he’ll be a priority waiver add with massive upside. Eovaldi combines elite control: 4.4 BB%, with high velocity: avg. 97.5 MPH. He had a great 2nd half with the development of his new cutter. He is questionable due to the lack of a proven track record. Bieber posted a 46.6 GB% with a 4.7 BB% and 24.3 K%. His 3.23 FIP was considerably lower than his 4.55 ERA. He needs to control his home run problem but the upside is certainly there. Gray was unlucky last season: his 4.08 FIP and 3.68 SIERA were lower than his 5.12 ERA. He also had a .322 BABIP and 67.9 LOB%. He’s likely to bounce-back in 2019, but the Coors risk still exists. Kikuchi is a total unknown who dominated Japan, putting up a 1.97 ERA with a 217/49 K/BB ratio in 187.2 innings last year. He’s looked good this Spring, but his workload will be limited, which adds some risk but there’s high potential here. Lucchesi posted a 26.5 K% and 7.9 BB% in his first taste of MLB action. He was unlucky last year: 20.4 HR/FB, 3.64 SIERA < 4.08 ERA. He’s the best pitcher on an improving Padres’ team.
Tier 11 - Injured Aces
49. Luis Severino
50. Clayton Kershaw
Both of these guys would be clear-cut SP1s if they did not have any injury concerns. It is unknown how much time Severino or Kershaw will miss, but I need to bump them considerably because drafting an injured pitcher is not a winning formula.
Foltynewicz came out of nowhere to put up excellent numbers last year. His SwStr% was only 10.3 and his 9.1 BB% is concerning. He’s currently dealing with elbow soreness. I already expected him to regress in 2019 - these elbow concerns put him on my “do not draft list.” Ray has excellent stuff, as evidenced by his 31.4 K%. But his erratic control makes him unappealing to me. I would avoid the high K potential because of his 13.3 BB%.
Tier 13 - Limited but Effective
53. Kenta Maeda
54. Hyun-Jun Ryu
55. Zack Godley
56. Rick Porcello
57. Kyle Freeland
Maeda posted a 14.4 SwStr% and 28.8 K%. His upside is capped because of the Dodgers’ pitching depth, but with Kershaw injury concerns, there’s an outside chance that he remains in the rotation all year. Ryu posted a 4.6 BB% and 27.5 K% - since Maeda can transition into a reliever more effectively, there’s a chance that Ryu would remain in the rotation instead of him. But Ryu carries more injury risk at the same level of effectiveness, so he was ranked lower. These guys will be solid when starting and it might be a good idea to draft both of them. Godley is a bounce-back candidate after a hyped season that ended with disappointment. His 3.82 FIP and 4.18 SIERA were both lower than his 4.74 ERA. Still has a nasty curveball, but needs his cutter to regain form (fell from 7.3 to -10.6 in Pitch value). Pitching for a poor Diamondbacks team downgrades him. Porcello gobbles up innings and should rack up wins on a good team, but we’ve seen his floor and it’s waiver-wire material. Freeland had a solid season but he had some luck: 3.67 FIP and 4.35 SIERA were higher than his 2.85 ERA. The Coors factor also caps his upside.
Tier 14 - Intriguing Late-Round Targets
58. Matt Strahm
59. Chris Paddack
60. Steven Matz
61. Jimmy Nelson
62. Anibal Sanchez
63. Mike Minor
64. Marco Gonzales
65. Jacob Junis
66. Alex Wood
Starting pitchers are the most volatile assets in baseball. It’s important to target pitchers with a high-floor because there’s always a risk of a season-ending injury at any point. We also must consider the intangibles: increased motivation when a highly-touted pitcher has a disappointing year, or if they move from a rebuilding to a contending team. These rankings put an emphasis on the following:
Career IP: Increased mileage can heighten injury risk
K%, SwStr%: Missing bats is key
BB%: Strong control increases floor
GB%: Better on the ground than in the air
ERA & FIP/SIERA Disparities
Pitch Values
Motivation for bounce back
Top Prospect pedigree
DISCLAIMER: One of the issues I have with some fantasy writers is that they tend to rank players in a similar range in order to take the safer option, particularly players in the upper-to-elite tiers. My rankings are different because some players are ranked much higher than their ADPs. I base them entirely on my own criteria of statistics as well as my personal intuition, which has led me to several years of success in fantasy sports. Here you will find players grouped into tiers along with tidbits of useful information. Hopefully these rankings stimulate discussion and debate. I hope you enjoy them.
Tier 1 - The Kings of the Mound
1. Jacob DeGrom
2. Max Scherzer
3. Chris Sale
These three pitchers can be ranked interchangeably. I put DeGrom at the top because he has less mileage than Scherzer and pitches in a weaker league than Sale.
Tier 2 - Challengers to the Throne
4. Trevor Bauer
5. Gerrit Cole
6. Noah Syndergaard
7. Aaron Nola
8. Blake Snell
A dominant season cut short by injury caused people to forget about Bauer a bit. He was the favourite for the AL Cy Young before going down. Cole dominated in his first season as an Astro; like Bauer, he combines great control with a high strikeout rate. Syndergaard is the wild card here but he has massive bounce back potential with some of the most dominant stuff in the league. Nola broke out last year, but he doesn’t have the strikeout potential as those listed above him. Snell won the Cy Young, but he falls below the rest on this list due to his 9.1 BB% as well as the fact that he pitches in the AL East.
Tier 3 - Veteran Aces with Risk
9. Justin Verlander
10. Corey Kluber
Verlander had one of the best seasons of his career in his first full year as an Astro, leading the league in K/BB% at 30.4, but his significant mileage (2,759.0 career innings in season) downgrades him on this list. Kluber is one of the most consistent pitchers in the league with pinpoint control and dominant off-speed stuff, but his fastball is weak; if any of his secondary pitches decline a bit, we could be looking at a down season.
Tier 4 - Budding Aces & Underrated Stars
11. Walker Buehler
12. Patrick Corbin
13. Carlos Carrasco
14. Jameson Taillon
15. Jose Berrios
Buehler was dominant in his rookie year, combining a high K rate with strong control. Take out a relief appearance where he allowed 5 ER in 1 IP and his numbers look even better: 2.30 ERA 0.92 WHIP. Corbin’s SwStr% was 15.6, 2nd in MLB behind his new teammate, Max Scherzer. His slider was one of the most dominant pitches in baseball and he now pitches for a better team. Carrasco is the most underrated ace in the league: last 5 years have produced a sub-3.60 ERA, sub-1.16 WHIP, and over a K per inning. His 15.3 SwStr% was only behind Scherzer and Corbin. Taillon’s development of a slider changed his game and led to a strong 2nd half. His SwStr% jumped from 8.2 to 10.7. A full year with this slider could mean big things. Entering his age-24 season, Berrios combines a top prospect pedigree with strong control and strikeout stuff. He just needs to find consistency and I believe it is coming this year.
Tier 5 - Underrated Veterans with Bounce-Back Potential
16. Madison Bumgarner
17. Stephen Strasburg
18. David Price
19. Masahiro Tanaka
20. Yu Darvish
Bumgarner is coming off of two seasons marred by fluke injuries caused by a dirt bike accident and a line drive. Everyone seems to have forgotten about him, so he will be highly motivated to return to form. Strasburg is an injury risk, but he is one year removed from a dominant season. He says his mechanics feel better at this stage compared to last year and he is in line for a bounce back. Price parlayed a dominant 2nd half into a dominant postseason. He finally exercised his playoff demons, which will be a huge positive psychological impact on him for 2019. He’ll be pitching loose after a World Series win - a strong bet to return to form. Tanaka had a 5.5 BB% and 25.0 K% - elite control and strikeout stuff. He will rack up the wins pitching for the Yankees. One of these years he’s going to turn in an ace season and I think this is the one. Darvish is feeling healthy with his velocity reportedly up this Spring. He is highly motivated to bounce-back after a highly disappointing first year as a Cub. Like Tanaka, Darvish’s strong control and strikeout stuff makes his upside high. He is ranked lower than Tanaka due to the fact that he is coming off of an injury.
Tier 6 - High-Upside SP2s & Second-Half Surgers
21. Jack Flaherty
22. Mike Clevinger
23. James Paxton
24. German Marquez
25. Zack Wheeler
27. Luis Castillo
28. Nick Pivetta
Flaherty looked dominant in his rookie season, but his 9.6 BB% is concerning, which puts him lower on this list. He looks fantastic this Spring. Clevinger trimmed his BB% from 12.0 to 8.3 in a dominant season, but his lack of prospect pedigree and concerns over control put him lower on the list. It’s possible he reverts back to his career norms with control. Paxton is absolutely dominant when healthy - maybe the Yankees can unlock more out of him. His significant injury risk keeps him lower on this list. Marquez 2nd half: 93.0 IP 124 Ks 2.61 ERA 1.00 WHIP - he pitched like an ace and you get him at a discounted price due to the Coors factor. Wheeler 2nd half: 75 IP 73 Ks 1.68 ERA 0.81 ERA. He is lower on this list due to health concerns but he is another discounted potential ace. Castillo 2nd half: 66.1 IP 69 Ks 2.44 ERA 0.96 WHIP. After disappointing last year, Castillo could breakout on an improving Reds’ team. Pivetta was a victim of terrible Phillies’ defense. They have improved in that regard with the simple move of moving Rhys Hoskins to 1B. Pivetta’s 3.51 SIERA was much lower than his 4.77 ERA.
Tier 7 - Strong SP3s
29. Chris Archer
30. Kyle Hendricks
31. Mike Mikolas
32. Zack Greinke
Archer should benefit by having a full year in the NL. His 7.7 BB%, 25.4 K%, and 13.1 SwStr% still show his tantalizing upside. His 3.73 SIERA and 3.75 FIP were lower than his 4.31 ERA. Hendricks is a groundball machine who has done it longer than Mikolas and has a higher K rate than him. Mikolas showcased elite control (3.6 BB%). He needs to improve on his K rate. Greinke is downgraded due to his significant mileage and diminishing velocity. The D-Backs are trending downward and Greinke is getting up there in age.
Tier 8 - The Breakout Tier
33. Ross Stripling
34. Tyler Glasnow
35. Joe Musgrove
36. Eduardo Rodriguez
37. Tyler Skaggs
Stripling combined a 4.4 BB%, 27.0 K% with an 11.2 SwStr% rate. With Kershaw’s injury concerns, he should have a cemented role in the Dodgers’ rotation. He’s a good bet to hold it all season long. Take out a start where he allowed 5 ER in less than 1 IP, and Glasnow’s numbers look interesting as a Ray: 55 IP 62 K 3.11 ERA 1.05 WHIP. He also cut down his BB% from 11.3 to 8.7 in Tampa - a breakout is on its way. Musgrove is a much cheaper version of Hendricks and Mikolas. He showed great control with a 4.7 BB% and strikeout stuff with a 20.6 K%. His 3.59 FIP was lower than his 4.06 ERA. Look out if he stays healthy. Rodriguez posted an elite 26.4 K%. He should rack up the wins pitching for the defending champs. He’s another guy who can post big numbers if he can put a full season together. Skaggs had a 2.62 ERA and 1.19 WHIP going into July 31st. His numbers plummeted from here onward due to injuries. He elevated his SwStr% from 8.0 to 11.0 in 2018. He’s another health risk that just needs to stay on the field for a breakout.
Tier 9 - Dependable Vets with Limited Upside
38. Jose Quintana
39. Charlie Morton
40. JA Happ
41. Rich Hill
42. Cole Hamels
Quintana is a bounce-back candidate after a disappointing first full season as a Cub. He started to turn his season around from August to October, with an increased in K rate and decrease in BB rate. Before last year, he was one of the more consistent pitchers in the league so I expect him to return to form. Morton is moving from the AL West to AL East so he gets a bit of a downgrade. His 9.2 BB% is concerning. He has a tendency of breaking down later on in the season. Happ isn’t a flashy pick, but he should be a solid innings eater. He increased his SwStr% from 9.4 to 10.4 last year. He should rack up the wins pitching for a great Yankees team. Hill is what he is: a veteran guy who won’t last the full season but will give you solid production while on the mound. Hamels’ stuff returned to form last year; his SwStr% increased to 12.1. He was dominant as a Cub: 76.1 IP 74 K 2.36 ERA 1.10 WHIP. His higher mileage keeps him lower on this list.
Tier 10 - Promising Arms with Question Marks
43. Jesus Luzardo
44. Nathan Eovaldi
45. Shane Bieber
46. Jon Gray
47. Yusei Kikuchi
48. Joey Lucchesi
43. Jesus Luzardo
44. Nathan Eovaldi
45. Shane Bieber
46. Jon Gray
47. Yusei Kikuchi
48. Joey Lucchesi
Luzardo is widely considered to be the top pitching prospect in baseball. He was dominant in Double-A last year, posing a 2.29 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 27.7 K%, and 5.8 BB%. He is currently dominating Spring Training. He likely will not start the season with the A’s which downgrades him on this list, but once he’s up he’ll be a priority waiver add with massive upside. Eovaldi combines elite control: 4.4 BB%, with high velocity: avg. 97.5 MPH. He had a great 2nd half with the development of his new cutter. He is questionable due to the lack of a proven track record. Bieber posted a 46.6 GB% with a 4.7 BB% and 24.3 K%. His 3.23 FIP was considerably lower than his 4.55 ERA. He needs to control his home run problem but the upside is certainly there. Gray was unlucky last season: his 4.08 FIP and 3.68 SIERA were lower than his 5.12 ERA. He also had a .322 BABIP and 67.9 LOB%. He’s likely to bounce-back in 2019, but the Coors risk still exists. Kikuchi is a total unknown who dominated Japan, putting up a 1.97 ERA with a 217/49 K/BB ratio in 187.2 innings last year. He’s looked good this Spring, but his workload will be limited, which adds some risk but there’s high potential here. Lucchesi posted a 26.5 K% and 7.9 BB% in his first taste of MLB action. He was unlucky last year: 20.4 HR/FB, 3.64 SIERA < 4.08 ERA. He’s the best pitcher on an improving Padres’ team.
Tier 11 - Injured Aces
49. Luis Severino
50. Clayton Kershaw
Both of these guys would be clear-cut SP1s if they did not have any injury concerns. It is unknown how much time Severino or Kershaw will miss, but I need to bump them considerably because drafting an injured pitcher is not a winning formula.
Tier 12 - Do Not Draft
51. Mike Foltynewicz
52. Robbie Ray
51. Mike Foltynewicz
52. Robbie Ray
Foltynewicz came out of nowhere to put up excellent numbers last year. His SwStr% was only 10.3 and his 9.1 BB% is concerning. He’s currently dealing with elbow soreness. I already expected him to regress in 2019 - these elbow concerns put him on my “do not draft list.” Ray has excellent stuff, as evidenced by his 31.4 K%. But his erratic control makes him unappealing to me. I would avoid the high K potential because of his 13.3 BB%.
Tier 13 - Limited but Effective
53. Kenta Maeda
54. Hyun-Jun Ryu
55. Zack Godley
56. Rick Porcello
57. Kyle Freeland
Maeda posted a 14.4 SwStr% and 28.8 K%. His upside is capped because of the Dodgers’ pitching depth, but with Kershaw injury concerns, there’s an outside chance that he remains in the rotation all year. Ryu posted a 4.6 BB% and 27.5 K% - since Maeda can transition into a reliever more effectively, there’s a chance that Ryu would remain in the rotation instead of him. But Ryu carries more injury risk at the same level of effectiveness, so he was ranked lower. These guys will be solid when starting and it might be a good idea to draft both of them. Godley is a bounce-back candidate after a hyped season that ended with disappointment. His 3.82 FIP and 4.18 SIERA were both lower than his 4.74 ERA. Still has a nasty curveball, but needs his cutter to regain form (fell from 7.3 to -10.6 in Pitch value). Pitching for a poor Diamondbacks team downgrades him. Porcello gobbles up innings and should rack up wins on a good team, but we’ve seen his floor and it’s waiver-wire material. Freeland had a solid season but he had some luck: 3.67 FIP and 4.35 SIERA were higher than his 2.85 ERA. The Coors factor also caps his upside.
Tier 14 - Intriguing Late-Round Targets
58. Matt Strahm
59. Chris Paddack
60. Steven Matz
61. Jimmy Nelson
62. Anibal Sanchez
63. Mike Minor
64. Marco Gonzales
65. Jacob Junis
66. Alex Wood
Strahm posted an impressive 28.2 K% with a 12.6 SwStr%. He's currently dominating Spring Training and soars to the Top 60. Paddack has been killing it in Spring Training. He posted an absurd 2.9 BB% in Double A last year. If he makes the Padres’ rotation he will skyrocket up this list .Matz in Aug/Sep: 46.1 IP, 17 BB, 54 K - he started to show full recovery from his injury. His SwStr% jumped from 7.1 to 9.2. Can he pull a Zack Wheeler? Nelson dominated in 2017, but it will take time for him to adjust back to the big leagues. He looks good in Spring Training, which is always a good sign. Sanchez revived his career in Atlanta: 24.4 K% and 7.6 BB%. His cutter: 11.6 and changeup: 14.8 pitch values were highly effective. Minor took off in the 2nd half: 57.2 IP, 53 Ks, 2.97 ERA, 0.94 WHIP. His fastball velocity increased as the season progressed. Gonzales has elite control (4.7 BB%). If you take out his August, he put up a 3.14 ERA, 1.11 WHIP with 128 Ks in 145 IP. Junis turned it on after the All-Star Break, with a 3.35 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 72 Ks in 75.1 IP. He has strong control with a 5.7 BB%. Wood finally has a secure spot in the starting rotation after being moved to Cincinnati. Like Gonzales and Junis, he has strong control.
Tier 15 - Veteran Innings-Eaters on the Decline
67. Jake Arrieta
68. Jon Lester
Arrieta posted a lowly 7.8 SwStr% and his K% fell from 23.1 to 19.1. He should put up wins on a strong Phillies’ team, but there is limited upside here. Lester’s 4.39 FIP and 4.57 SIERA were much higher than his 3.32 ERA. His SwStr% fell to a career low 8.5. Similar to Arrieta, he can put up some wins, but he’s an unappealing option. Both of these pitchers are ranked a bit higher due to their track record - I likely will not be drafting them.
These two were higher on the list until their injury concerns popped up: Heaney with elbow concerns and Gausman with a shoulder injury. Heaney put up a 6.0 BB% and 24.0 K%, showcasing a good combination of control and strikeout stuff. Gausman put up a 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 44 Ks in 59.2 innings as a Brave. He also has strong control: 6.4 BB%. With the Orioles’ track record of mismanaging pitchers (Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop), it is easy to see Gausman breaking out in Atlanta. Hopefully these two can recover soon because I had high hopes for them.
Tier 15 - Veteran Innings-Eaters on the Decline
67. Jake Arrieta
68. Jon Lester
Arrieta posted a lowly 7.8 SwStr% and his K% fell from 23.1 to 19.1. He should put up wins on a strong Phillies’ team, but there is limited upside here. Lester’s 4.39 FIP and 4.57 SIERA were much higher than his 3.32 ERA. His SwStr% fell to a career low 8.5. Similar to Arrieta, he can put up some wins, but he’s an unappealing option. Both of these pitchers are ranked a bit higher due to their track record - I likely will not be drafting them.
Tier 16 - Upside with Injury Concerns
69. Andrew Heaney
70. Kevin Gausman
69. Andrew Heaney
70. Kevin Gausman
These two were higher on the list until their injury concerns popped up: Heaney with elbow concerns and Gausman with a shoulder injury. Heaney put up a 6.0 BB% and 24.0 K%, showcasing a good combination of control and strikeout stuff. Gausman put up a 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 44 Ks in 59.2 innings as a Brave. He also has strong control: 6.4 BB%. With the Orioles’ track record of mismanaging pitchers (Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop), it is easy to see Gausman breaking out in Atlanta. Hopefully these two can recover soon because I had high hopes for them.
Tier 17 - Injury-Plagued & Questionable
71. Carlos Martinez
72. Collin McHugh
73. Kyle Gibson
74. Matthew Boyd
75. Alex Reyes
71. Carlos Martinez
72. Collin McHugh
73. Kyle Gibson
74. Matthew Boyd
75. Alex Reyes
It wasn’t long ago that Martinez was considered one of the best young pitchers in the game. I know he’s hurt but he has the tools to be a strong contributor in your rotation. McHugh dominated in the bullpen: 33.2 K%, 7.4 BB%, 13.3 SwStr%. He has had success as a starter before and if he weren’t injured he would also be higher on this list. Gibson improved last year: K% rose from 17.5% to 21.7% and SwStr% from 10.0% to 11.5%. Similar to Gibson, Boyd showed significant gains in 2018: 7.2 BB% (down from 8.8%), 22.4 K% (up from 18.2%), 10.2 SwStr% (up from 9.9%). Reyes is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball and he might crack the Cardinals’ rotation.
Honourable Mentions
Michael Pineda
Forrest Whitley
Carlos Rodon
Michael Fulmer
Marcus Stroman
Josh James
Sonny Gray
Brad Keller
Reynaldo Lopez
Aaron Sanchez
Luke Weaver
Anthony DeSclafani
Michael Wacha
Jake Odorizzi
Touki Toussaint
This list includes a group of pitchers that just missed out on the Top-75. I would not draft any of these guys but I would keep a close eye on them on free agents. Some of these pitchers have proven track records, some are failed former top prospects, others are current top prospects with no defined roles with their respective big league clubs.
Honourable Mentions
Michael Pineda
Forrest Whitley
Carlos Rodon
Michael Fulmer
Marcus Stroman
Josh James
Sonny Gray
Brad Keller
Reynaldo Lopez
Aaron Sanchez
Luke Weaver
Anthony DeSclafani
Michael Wacha
Jake Odorizzi
Touki Toussaint
This list includes a group of pitchers that just missed out on the Top-75. I would not draft any of these guys but I would keep a close eye on them on free agents. Some of these pitchers have proven track records, some are failed former top prospects, others are current top prospects with no defined roles with their respective big league clubs.
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